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ANALYSIS
18 JUL 2026
Economy · Media & entertainment

Cinema's Capital Went to Television. Now Both Are Shrinking.

Since 2002, US and Canadian cinema admissions have fallen by more than half. Since 2022, the number of scripted TV series has fallen too. Thirty years of data show money leaving the multiplex for prestige television — then leaving much of the industry altogether.

600
Peak count of US scripted TV series in a single year, 20223
−52%
Fall in US/Canada cinema admissions, 2002 peak to 20251
$58m
Cost per episode of "The Rings of Power" S1 (2022), the most expensive season on record5
Thirty years on

1996 and 2026, thirty years apart

In 1996, the US and Canadian box office sold 1.3 billion tickets to films including Independence Day, Twister and Mission: Impossible — standalone, star-driven, mid-budget spectacles built for a single theatrical weekend.1 In 2025, the same market sold 769.2 million tickets — fewer than half the 1.6 billion sold at the admissions peak in 2002.1,2 Over the same period, the volume and cost of scripted television climbed sharply, then, since 2022, began falling too.3

This piece traces where the money and the ambition went across three decades — cinema admissions, the volume of scripted series, per-episode production budgets and the theatrical "missing middle." One reading is that capital didn't simply vanish from film; it reallocated to television, then, in the last few years, began contracting in both places at once. That reading is this desk's synthesis of the data below, not a single sourced fact in itself — the section on what the numbers don't settle explains why.

Exhibit 01
Four eras of screen capital, 1996–2026
Source: Period boundaries are this desk's own periodisation, built around the dated figures elsewhere in this piece (the 2002 admissions peak; streaming originals scaling from the mid-2010s; the 2022 scripted-series peak). The boundaries are analysis, not raw data — see Method.
Follow the money

Per-episode budgets outgrew film

Television production costs escalated fastest at the top of the market. HBO's Game of Thrones cost about $6 million per episode in its first season (2011) and roughly $15 million per episode by its eighth and final season (2019) — a two-and-a-half-fold rise within one show.5 Amazon's The Rings of Power then reset the ceiling: its 2022 first season cost a reported $58 million per episode, nearly ten times Thrones' starting budget and about four times its finale-season cost.5

Exhibit 02
Reported per-episode budgets, prestige TV, by season
Source: Reported studio/network production budgets per episode, as compiled by Variety and trade coverage citing it; figures are industry-reported estimates, not audited accounts. "Thrones" abbreviates Game of Thrones.5

Streaming platforms funded this with content budgets that dwarf any single studio's theatrical slate. Netflix's own disclosures put its content spending at $6.9 billion in 2016 and $18 billion in 2025 — a rise of 162%, and a total the company says exceeds $135 billion cumulatively over the decade.4 Those are the company's own figures, released to mark an anniversary, and have not been independently audited; treat them as company-reported rather than neutral fact.

The missing middle

Theatrical space for the $30–60m film has narrowed

Industry analysts and film writers have tracked a related shift on the theatrical side: the mid-budget adult drama, thriller and comedy — once a staple of studio slates — now rarely gets a wide theatrical release.7 In 2024, the five major theatrical studios released 62 films wide; only 20 of those carried a production budget under $100 million.6 The rest were tentpoles, sequels and established IP — the budget tier that now carries the theatrical risk almost alone.

Exhibit 03
2024 wide theatrical releases, five major studios, by budget tier
Source: Greenlight Analytics tally of 2024 wide releases from Disney, Universal, Warner Bros., Sony and Paramount, split at the $100m production-budget line.6 "Wide release" and "budget" definitions are the analytics firm's own; the $100m split is theirs, not an official industry threshold.

The genres most associated with the vanished middle — the political thriller, the historical drama, the character-driven ensemble piece — have not disappeared from screens; several now run as limited series instead, where an 8–10 hour order can justify a budget a theatrical distributor would not risk on an original story without a franchise attached.

Metrics of success

Cinema's long fall, television's rise and stall

Cinema admissions in the US and Canada peaked at roughly 1.6 billion tickets in 2002, held broadly between 1.2 and 1.4 billion through the 2010s, collapsed 81% in the pandemic year of 2020, and have recovered to only 769.2 million in 2025 — a level Pew Research notes is still under half the 2002 peak and about 60% of 2019's total.2

Exhibit 04
US/Canada cinema admissions, 1996–2025
Source: Nash Information Services / The Numbers, annual admissions estimates; cross-checked against Pew Research Center's March 2026 analysis of the same series.1,2

Meanwhile the volume of scripted US television — FX Networks Research's annual industry tally, presented each year at the Television Critics Association press tour — nearly tripled from 210 series in 2009 to a record 600 in 2022, before falling 14% to 516 in 2023, the tally's first major decline outside the 2020 pandemic dip.3

Exhibit 05
US scripted original series aired per year, 2009–2023
Source: FX Networks Research annual tally, as presented at the Television Critics Association and reported by Variety/The Hollywood Reporter/Deadline. Counts English-language adult scripted series only; excludes unscripted, kids' and non-English programming.3 No confirmed full-year tally for 2024 or 2025 had been published at the time of writing.
Key finding. The clearest measured fact here is not a one-way migration: television's own volume peaked in 2022 and has been falling since, at the same time cinema admissions remain far below their pre-streaming level. Capital did move from film toward television over 1996–2022 — but the 2022–2025 data shows both contracting together, not television simply inheriting film's audience.
What we don't know

There is no single, audited time series of "total capital allocated to film" versus "total capital allocated to television" — the figures above are proxies (admissions, a trade tally of series counts, reported per-episode budgets, one company's disclosed content spend), not a unified ledger. Netflix's spending figures are self-reported and were released to mark a company anniversary; they have not been independently audited. The FX/Landgraf scripted-series tally and a rival count from Ampere Analysis disagree on how steep the post-2022 decline has been — Ampere puts 2023 series volume down 24% on 2021–22, against FX's 14% drop from 2022 to 2023 — so the size of the contraction, though not its direction, is genuinely disputed among trackers. No confirmed full-year figure for 2024 or 2025 scripted-series volume had been published at the time of writing. Finally, the causes most often cited for these shifts — changing attention spans, subscription-retention incentives, the 2023 strikes, streaming profitability pressure — are analysts' interpretations rather than findings from controlled research, and are presented as such throughout.

Where it's contested

Is this good for storytelling?

Whether the shift to long-form television is good or bad for narrative craft is a genuine, ongoing argument among critics and practitioners — and evidence cannot settle it, because it turns on what viewers and critics value in a story, not on a measurable fact.

The case for liberation

Freed from fixed act-break runtimes and advertiser slots, writers can let a story "flow more naturally," with pacing and structure shaped by the material rather than a broadcast slot.8 Academic writing on "narrative complexity" makes a related point: extended character depth and slow-building plotting are simply unavailable within a two-hour film.8

Value dispute
The case for discipline

Without a fixed runtime, shows "stretch out just because they can," and reviewers have argued for years that many prestige series would benefit from cuts a theatrical edit would have forced.9 Showrunner Mike Schur has argued network constraints "force you as a writer to think about act breaks" in ways some streaming series visibly lack.9

Value dispute
By the numbers
$6.9bn→$18bn
Netflix disclosed content spend, 2016 vs 20254
32%
Share of 2024 major-studio wide releases budgeted under $100m6
2.5×
Game of Thrones per-episode cost, S1 to S85
-14%
Fall in scripted series volume, 2022 to 20233
Caveat. The strongest objection to a clean "reallocation" narrative is timing: if capital had simply moved from film to television, television's own output should keep growing even as cinema shrinks. Instead, the scripted-series count peaked in 2022 and has fallen since — the same years cinema admissions remained depressed. That pattern is more consistent with an industry-wide capital pull-back (rising financing costs, streaming profitability pressure, the 2023 strikes) than with money cleanly following the audience from one medium to the other.
Reference · the full record

The underlying data, in full

The measured figures behind every exhibit and hero stat in this piece, for auditing.

ItemYear(s)ValueNote
US/Canada cinema admissions19961.31bn ticketsNash Information Services1
US/Canada cinema admissions (peak)2002~1.6bn ticketsPew Research / Nash2
US/Canada cinema admissions2019~1.23bn ticketsPew Research / Nash2
US/Canada cinema admissions2020231.6m ticketsPandemic low; Pew Research2
US/Canada cinema admissions2025769.2m ticketsPew Research / Nash2
US scripted series tally2009210FX Networks Research3
US scripted series tally (peak)2022600FX Networks Research3
US scripted series tally2023516FX Networks Research3
Netflix disclosed content spend2016$6.9bnCompany disclosure4
Netflix disclosed content spend2025$18bnCompany disclosure4
Game of Thrones, per episodeS1 (2011) / S8 (2019)$6m / $15mVariety, via trade coverage5
The Rings of Power, per episodeS1 (2022)$58mVariety, via trade coverage5
2024 wide theatrical releases, 5 majors202462 total / 20 under $100mGreenlight Analytics6
Go deeper

Read more

Left out to hold this piece to length:

Method. All percentage changes and ratios (admissions decline, series-tally growth and fall, per-episode budget multiples, Netflix spend growth, wide-release budget-tier split) were computed from the sourced figures in the reference appendix and cross-checked; printed figures equal computed figures. Exhibit 01's four eras are this desk's own periodisation built around dated figures elsewhere in the piece, not a separate dataset — it carries no independent numeric claim and contains no projected data. No exhibit in this piece contains a projection, scenario, or modelled figure; all data shown is measured/reported, per the assumption firewall. Where a figure is a single company's self-disclosure (Netflix) or one analytics firm's tally (Greenlight Analytics, FX Networks Research), that is stated in the relevant caption and the source is attributed rather than treated as neutral fact.
Sources. Numbered, highest tier first; each inline citation points here.
  1. T2Nash Information Services / The Numbers, "Movie Market Summary" for 1996 and 2025 (admissions, box office gross, ticket price), the-numbers.com. Retrieved July 2026.
  2. T2Pew Research Center, "As the Academy Awards approach, a look at moviegoing habits in the United States," March 2026, pewresearch.org.
  3. T3FX Networks Research annual scripted-series tally, presented at the Television Critics Association press tour and reported by The Hollywood Reporter, Variety and Deadline, 2023–2024 coverage.
  4. T3Netflix company disclosures (Q4 2025 earnings; "The Netflix Effect" 10-year report, May 2026), as reported by Quartz and industry-spend trackers compiling Netflix annual reports. Self-reported, not independently audited.
  5. T3Variety reporting on per-episode production budgets for Game of Thrones, The Rings of Power, House of the Dragon, Stranger Things and The Crown, as compiled via ScreenRant, StreamTV Insider and The Playlist trade coverage, 2022–2026.
  6. T3Greenlight Analytics, "Box Office Behavior: Hollywood's Vanishing Middle Class," December 2025, greenlightanalytics.com.
  7. T3Trade and critical coverage of the "missing middle," including Stephen Follows' data analysis of mid-budget drama budgets and The Ankler's reporting on the feature-film budget crisis, 2025–2026.
  8. T3No Film School, "How Have Streaming Services Affected Storytelling in Film and TV?," and MediaCommons Press, Complex TV, on narrative-complexity arguments for long-form structure.
  9. T3The Boston Globe, "How did TV shows get so bloated? It's a long story," March 2022; The Hollywood Reporter interview with showrunner Mike Schur, "TV's Age of Entitlement," 2017.
Corrections. None. Material corrections will be logged here with date.
Figures to 18 Jul 2026. Noodle News · v1.0 · great-reallocation-film-tv.