News
DN
NoodleNews
REPORT
27 JUL 2026
Economy · US trade policy

US tariffs on 60 economies take effect under a law with no expiry date

A 10–12.5% tariff on imports from 60 countries and the EU, including a 10% rate for the UK, took effect on 24 July under a statute with no legislated end — succeeding an emergency levy that expired, by law, the same day.

99.4%
Share of all US imports now covered by a Section 301 duty, USTR says1
10–12.5%
The two-tier rate: 10% where forced-labor import bans are enforced, 12.5% elsewhere1
150-day cap
Statutory limit on the Section 122 levy this replaces — Section 301 carries none2
What changed

Three legal bases in sixteen months — only the last one is open-ended

The rate on offer — a tariff of roughly 10% — is not new. What changed on 24 July is the law behind it. The Supreme Court struck down the President's global "reciprocal" tariffs on 20 February 2026, ruling that the emergency-powers statute used to impose them, IEEPA, did not authorise them.3 The White House immediately invoked a different, narrower power — Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — to impose a flat 10% global tariff, but Section 122 caps any such surcharge at 150 days.2 That clock ran out at 00:01 ET on 24 July, the same moment the new Section 301 forced-labor tariffs took effect — and Section 301 carries no statutory sunset at all.1

Exhibit 01
Three tariff regimes since April 2025 — the third has no scheduled end
Source: Dates from the Federal Register and White House proclamations.2 The Section 301 bar is three days wide as these figures were compiled on 27 July — it will keep extending for as long as the tariff stays in force, since no expiry date has been set.
Key finding. This is not a straightforward extension of the tariff wall the Supreme Court struck down. It is a legally distinct instrument, built on a statute (Section 301) that Presidents of both parties have used for years and that does not carry a 150-day clock — making it, on paper, considerably harder to dislodge than the two regimes it followed.
Who pays what

A two-tier rate, drawn on forced-labor enforcement — not on trade balances

USTR investigated all 60 economies for the same thing: whether each imposes and effectively enforces a ban on importing goods made with forced labor.1 Seventeen — including Canada, Mexico, India and the UK — pay the lower 10% rate, because they already ban such imports, have committed to under a trade agreement, or partly do so.1 Five more — the EU, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan — get a different formula, calculated net of what they already pay, rather than stacked on top.1 The remaining 38, including China, Vietnam, Thailand and Brazil, pay a flat 12.5%, added on top of whatever duty already applied.1

Exhibit 02
Selected economies by new tariff rate — UK highlighted
Source: USTR, final determinations by economy.1 Rates shown are the added Section 301 duty; five economies (not shown) use a separate net-of-MFN formula. Oil, gas, fertiliser and USMCA-qualifying goods are exempt regardless of rate.1
What we don't know

Whether Section 301 survives a legal challenge is untested. A separate case already narrowly enjoined the Section 122 stopgap for three named importer plaintiffs in May, on the grounds the President exceeded that statute's authority6 — and legal researchers have flagged that Section 301, designed for bilateral or sector-specific disputes, sits awkwardly with a simultaneous 60-economy action, which could expose it to similar "arbitrary and capricious" review under the Administrative Procedure Act.3 The 431-page Federal Register notice also carries two annexes of product-by-product exemptions that this piece has not itemised at the tariff-line level1, and the consumer-cost modelling below was run three days before the tariff took effect, against the proposed rather than the final rate structure.4

Where it's contested

Genuine enforcement gap, or a new vehicle for the old tariff wall?

USTR frames this strictly as a labor-rights action; critics read the rate structure as the old tariff regime rebuilt on sturdier legal ground. Both readings are argued in good faith by people with direct knowledge of the record.

The case

USTR says the finding followed 60 formal investigations, two rounds of public hearings and more than 2,100 public comments, and that the US has enforced its own forced-labor import ban for nearly a century while asking trading partners to do the same.1 A senior administration official told reporters several economies had already tightened enforcement to qualify for the lower rate during the process — India's rate fell from a proposed 12.5% to 10%, the official said.7

Empirical dispute
The counter-case

New Zealand's prime minister called the rate imposed on his country "extremely disappointing" and said the investigation "did not provide meaningful evidence" on forced labor; Australia's trade minister called his country's tariff "completely unjustified."5 Trade-law analysts note the 60-country list and 10–12.5% range closely track the tariff wall the Supreme Court invalidated in February, and argue Section 301 — written for bilateral or sector-specific disputes — was not designed as a substitute for a global tariff policy.8

Empirical dispute
By the numbers
12.1%
Average US statutory tariff rate across all imports, as of 21 July4
12.8%
Modelled rate by year-end now that Section 301 is the operative regime, vs 9.8% if it had lapsed4
$1,100
Estimated annual household cost under this scenario, vs $550 if the tariff had lapsed4
$2.0tn
Modelled 10-year tariff revenue under this scenario, vs $1.3tn if it had lapsed4
Caveat. These are Yale Budget Lab's own modelled scenarios, not measured outturns — run on 21 July against the proposed rate structure, three days before the tariff actually took effect on largely matching terms.4 Actual pass-through to prices depends on how much of the duty firms absorb versus pass on, which isn't yet observable.
Go deeper

Read more

Left out to hold this to a medium read:

Method. Timeline dates (Exhibit 01) are drawn from Federal Register proclamation and notice text and computed to decimal-year precision in code; the Section 301 span runs to 27 July 2026, the day these figures were compiled, and is not projected forward since no expiry date exists to project toward. Country tariff-rate figures (Exhibit 02) and the two-tier/net-of-MFN structure are taken directly from USTR's 23 July determination. The 12.8%/9.8% and related stat-band figures are Yale Budget Lab's own published scenario estimates, not Noodle News calculations, and are labelled as modelled throughout — none appears as a hero stat, headline or standfirst figure.
Sources. Numbered, highest tier first; each inline citation points here.
  1. T1Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, "USTR Takes Action in Forced Labor Section 301 Investigations" and accompanying Fact Sheet, 23 Jul 2026. ustr.gov, retrieved 26 Jul 2026.
  2. T1Federal Register, "Imposing a Temporary Import Surcharge To Address Fundamental International Payments Problems" (Proclamation 11012), published 25 Feb 2026, issued 20 Feb 2026. federalregister.gov, retrieved 26 Jul 2026.
  3. T2Congressional Research Service, "Legal Authority for Section 301 Tariffs to Address Forced Labor and Excess Manufacturing Capacity," Legal Sidebar, Jul 2026. Via everycrsreport.com, retrieved 26 Jul 2026.
  4. T2The Budget Lab at Yale, "The State of U.S. Tariffs," updated 21 Jul 2026. budgetlab.yale.edu, retrieved 26 Jul 2026.
  5. T3Time, "How the World Is Reacting to Trump's 'Forced Labor' Tariffs," 24 Jul 2026. For attributed reaction quotes only.
  6. T3Clark Hill, "Trade Court Blocks Trump Tariffs; Importers Still Pay Now," 8 May 2026, on the CIT's Section 122 ruling. For the event only, not legal conclusions as fact.
  7. T3NPR, "Trump to impose double-digit tariffs on dozens of countries," 23 Jul 2026. For the attributed official's on-record detail only.
  8. T3Tech Times, "Section 301 Forced-Labor Tariffs Now Cover 99% of US Trade, Replacing Two Failed Regimes," 24 Jul 2026. For attributed legal/trade commentary only, not as legal conclusions of fact.
Corrections. None. Material corrections will be logged here with date.
Figures to 27 Jul 2026. Noodle News · v1.0 · 2026-07-27-us-tariffs-60-countries.