Six named storms, no hurricanes: 2026 has passed the satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane by 13 days, and storm energy is running at 8% of normal for the date.
As of 03:00 UTC on 24 September, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) had counted six named storms in the 2026 Atlantic season and no hurricanes.2 The strongest, Fay, peaked at 60 knots, four short of the 64-knot hurricane threshold.2
Routine satellite coverage of the basin dates from 1966.6 In the 60 seasons since, the latest first hurricane arrived on 11 September, in both 2002 and 2013; on average it came on 26 July.1 This season is now 13 days past that record.
NHC’s best-track database reaches back to 1851. Of the 175 seasons from then to 2025, only three got to 24 September without a hurricane: 1905, whose first arrived on 8 October, and 1907 and 1914, which had none at all.1
Counting storms says nothing about how strong or long-lived they were. Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) captures both: it sums the square of each storm’s peak sustained wind every six hours while it is at tropical-storm strength or above.2 The 2026 total stands at 6.5 units, which NHC puts 92% below the 1991–2020 normal for the date.2 A Noodle News calculation from the best-track data puts that normal at 84.9 units by 24 September, consistent with NHC’s figure.1
On this measure 2026 is the least active Atlantic season to this date since at least 1950; the previous low was 12.6 units, in 1994. Across the full record, four seasons were lower at this point: 1905, 1907, 1914 and 1925.1
NOAA’s August outlook attributed its below-normal forecast chiefly to El Niño, which raises the vertical wind shear that tears developing storms apart.3 Colorado State University’s July forecast made the same case.5 That NOAA forecast still expected two to six hurricanes over the full season.3
How complete the early record is. Before routine satellite coverage, short-lived or far-offshore hurricanes could go unrecorded, and NHC’s own documentation describes the early database as far from complete.4 Comparisons with 1905, 1907 and 1914 are therefore less certain than the satellite-era record.
Whether the 2026 figures will stand. They are operational. NHC reassesses every storm after the season, and Fay’s 60-knot peak could be revised in either direction.2
How the season ends. It runs to 30 November. In 1991–2020, about 31% of a season’s ACE came after 24 September, and 27 of those 30 seasons produced at least one hurricane after this date.1 That is the historical pattern, not a forecast for 2026.