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ANALYSIS
9 OCT 2026
Science · Climate

The ocean surface ran further above normal in September than in any month on NOAA's 177-year record

NOAA puts September's global sea surface temperature 1.10°C above its 20th-century average. That beats August's record, but only by 0.02°C, with El Niño conditions persisting in the Pacific.

1.10°C
Global ocean surface departure from the 1901–2000 average, September 20261
0.02°C
Margin over the previous record, set in August 20261
2nd
Rank of September 2026 among Septembers for land and ocean combined, behind 20231
The latest release

Two record months in a row

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published its September global climate report on 9 October. It says the global ocean surface averaged 1.10°C above its 20th-century average. That is the largest departure for any month in its record, which begins in 1850. The previous record, 1.08°C, was set only a month earlier, in August 2026.12

NOAA also reports that the ocean departure has set a new high for its time of year for four months in a row. In its monthly series, June reached 0.99°C, July 1.02°C, August 1.08°C and September 1.10°C. Before August, the highest month on record was 1.03°C, in January and February 2024.2

Exhibit 01
After easing in 2025, ocean warmth climbed past its 2024 peak
Source: NOAA NCEI, Climate at a Glance, global ocean monthly temperature departures, °C relative to 1901–2000. The line marks the earlier peak of 1.03°C.2
Key finding. September 2026 is 0.07°C above any month before this summer, and 0.26°C above September 2025.
The long record

September, 1850 to now

Looking only at Septembers shows the long-run shift. Until 2023, no September had been more than 0.76°C above the 20th-century average. September 2023 reached 1.02°C. September 2026 is 0.08°C higher again.2

Exhibit 02
September ocean temperature departure, every year since 1850
Source: NOAA NCEI, Climate at a Glance, global ocean September departures, °C relative to 1901–2000. The dashed line marks the 1901–2000 average. Early values rest on sparse ship measurements and are less certain.2
Land and ocean together

Second-warmest September overall

Combining land and ocean, NOAA ranks September 2026 as the second-warmest September, at 1.33°C above average and 0.07°C behind September 2023. All ten of the warmest Septembers have come since 2015. The land surface alone was third-warmest for the month. NOAA reports that September was the warmest on record for the Arctic region, North America and Asia. January to September 2026 was the second warmest such period, behind 2024.1

Exhibit 03
The five warmest Septembers are all from the 2020s
Source: NOAA NCEI, global land and ocean September departures, °C relative to 1901–2000.2

Context. NOAA attributes record warmth in the central and eastern tropical Pacific to persistent El Niño conditions.1 Copernicus reported record daily sea surface temperatures for the time of year in June, as El Niño began.3 On 21 September a daily measure in the equatorial Pacific was 3.08°C above its 1991–2020 average, above any recorded El Niño. NOAA has not ranked the event as the strongest, because its official measure uses three-month averages.4

What we don't know

How much of the record is El Niño and how much is the long-term warming trend cannot be read off these figures. Whether ocean warmth keeps rising also depends on when El Niño peaks, which NOAA scientists expect within months.4 Other datasets use different baselines, areas and methods, and may rank these months differently.

Reading the figures
Caveat. The strongest objection is the size of the margin. September beats August by 0.02°C, which is small compared with the uncertainty in a global average. The firmer finding is the run: the two highest monthly departures on record are August and September 2026, and both clear the earlier peak of 1.03°C by more than the gap between them. These are departures from normal, not absolute temperatures; the ocean's absolute temperature follows a seasonal cycle.
Method. Monthly and September-only global ocean and land-and-ocean temperature departures were taken from NOAA NCEI's Climate at a Glance series (base period 1901–2000, °C, two decimal places as published). Ranks, margins and the previous monthly high were computed in code from the published values and checked against the statements in NOAA's September 2026 report. Values for 2026 are preliminary and may be revised. No projection is used.
Sources. Numbered, highest tier first; each inline citation points here.
  1. T1NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Monitoring Global Temperature and Precipitation in September 2026, 9 October 2026. Retrieved 9 October 2026.
  2. T1NOAA NCEI, Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series, ocean and land-and-ocean, monthly and September series. Retrieved 9 October 2026.
  3. T1Copernicus Climate Change Service and Copernicus Marine, Daily global sea surface temperatures break records for the time of year, 1 July 2026. Retrieved 9 October 2026.
  4. T3Science News, This year's El Niño just broke a record months before it's expected to peak, 24 September 2026. Retrieved 9 October 2026.
Corrections. None. Material corrections will be logged here with date.
Figures to 9 Oct 2026. Noodle News · v1.0 · ocean-temperature-record-september-2026.