Home Office figures show 42% fewer people and 49% fewer boats crossing the Channel than at the same point in 2025. Boats have kept getting fuller, averaging 67 people this year.
On 29 September the Home Office said small-boat arrivals so far this year were 42% lower than at the same point in 2025. It said the number of boats was 49% lower.2 The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford counted about 16,300 arrivals from 1 January to 9 September, 47% fewer than in the same period of 2025 and 27% fewer than in 2024.4
For comparison, 41,472 people crossed in 2025, below the record 45,774 in 2022.1 Up to 1 August, 14,526 people had arrived in 2026, against 25,436 by the same date in 2025, 16,903 in 2024 and 14,732 in 2023.5
The number of boats has fallen faster than the number of people. Taken together, the Home Office's two figures imply about 14% more people per boat than at the same point last year.2 Official statistics put the average at 41 people per boat in 2022, 53 in 2024 and 62 in 2025. They say the average has risen every year since 2018.1 PA Media's analysis of the Home Office series gives 7 in 2018 and 67 in 2026 up to 1 August. July averaged 72, the highest for any month since 2018.5
The latest daily figures show the same pattern. In the week to 27 September, 1,655 people arrived on 24 boats, about 69 per boat. Between 29 September and 5 October, 1,343 arrived on 17 boats, about 79 per boat.3 The Migration Observatory reports a record 230 people on a single boat in August.4
Why crossings fell is not settled. The Home Office credits enforcement with France. The Migration Observatory says policy effects cannot be separated from other factors, including a fall in irregular crossings into the EU.24 Why boats are fuller is also unclear; the figures do not show whether fewer launches cause the overcrowding. All 2026 figures are provisional and will be revised in the quarterly statistics.3