UK population growth slows to its weakest since 2020 as net migration falls by two-thirds

The UK grew by 227,700 people in the year to mid-2025. Almost all of that came from migration, because births outnumbered deaths by just 4,900.

Noodle News data desk · reading time ~3 min

0.33%

UK population growth, year to mid-2025: the lowest since mid-2020¹

222,900

Net international migration, down from 651,700 a year earlier¹

4,900

Natural change: births minus deaths across the whole UK¹

The latest release

Still growing, but far more slowly

The Office for National Statistics estimates the UK population at 69,483,900 at mid-2025. That is 227,700 more than its revised mid-2024 estimate, a rise of 0.33%. The ONS says this is the slowest rate of increase since the year to mid-2020, when the pandemic held growth down. The population has grown every year since mid-1982. The fastest rate in that period was 1.3%, in the year to mid-2023.¹

The slowdown comes almost entirely from migration. Net international migration was 222,900, against 651,700 the year before. That is a fall of 428,800, or 65.8%. Arrivals dropped by 410,300 to 886,200, a fall of 31.6%. Departures rose by 2.9% to 663,400.¹

Exhibit 01

Arrivals fell sharply; births, deaths and people leaving barely moved

Source: ONS mid-2025 population estimates. Mid-2025 values are published. Births and deaths for the year to mid-2024 are derived from the published mid-2025 figures and the stated year-on-year changes.¹

Key finding. Net migration accounted for 222,900 of the 227,700 increase, about 97.9%. Natural change accounted for 4,900, about 2.2%.

Births and deaths

A near-balance between births and deaths

There were 652,400 births in the year to mid-2025. The ONS says that is the lowest number for at least 43 years. Deaths rose slightly to 647,500. Births therefore exceeded deaths by 4,900, roughly 1.01 births for every death. Our derived figure for the year before is 16,200. The ONS also notes that natural change was negative in the year to mid-2023.¹ PA Media, reporting on the same release, gives the same 16,200 for the year to mid-2024 and minus 16,300 for the year to mid-2023. It also notes that Wales's fall was its first since 2015.³

Exhibit 02

Natural change is now a sliver beside net migration

Source: ONS mid-2025 population estimates. Natural change for the year to mid-2024 is derived as births minus deaths from figures implied by the release.¹

Analysis. A natural change of 4,900 is less than one hundredth of one per cent of the population. With births falling and deaths edging up, any growth now depends mainly on migration. That is a description of the arithmetic, not a forecast: the estimates do not say what happens next.

The four nations

England accounts for virtually all the growth

England grew by 227,600 (0.39%), close to the whole UK increase. Scotland added 2,200 (0.04%) and Northern Ireland 600 (0.03%). Wales shrank by 2,800 (0.09%). Natural change was negative in both Wales and Scotland; Scotland grew only because net migration made up the difference.¹

Wales is also the oldest nation, with a median age of 43.2, against 43.1 in Scotland, 40.6 in England and Northern Ireland, and 40.9 for the UK. Its old-age dependency ratio is the highest too.¹

Exhibit 03

Wales has the most people of pensionable age per working-age person

Source: ONS mid-2025 population estimates. Ratio of people of state pension age to people of working age, per 1,000. The dashed line marks the UK figure.¹

What we don't know

Migration is the hardest component to measure, and these estimates are revised. In this release the ONS cut its mid-2024 UK estimate by 25,200.¹ Its provisional mid-2025 estimate of 69,487,000 has now been revised to 69,484,000.²¹ These estimates do not say why arrivals fell, or whether the slowdown will continue.

Reading the figures

Caveat. The strongest objection is that a 4,900 balance is smaller than the size of routine revisions, so the sign of natural change could still flip. The robust finding is the scale: births and deaths roughly cancel, and migration drives growth. "Slowest since 2020" also compares with years when growth was unusually high.

Method. All figures are from the ONS mid-2025 population estimates for the UK, published 1 October 2026. Growth is 227,700 divided by the revised mid-2024 population of 69,256,300. Births and deaths for the year to mid-2024 are derived from the mid-2025 figures and the changes the ONS reports (births down 9,700, deaths up 1,600), giving 662,100 and 645,900; natural change for that year (16,200) is therefore our calculation; it matches the figure PA Media reports from the same release. Shares and percentage changes are computed from the published counts and rounded to one decimal place. A residual of about 100 between the components and total change reflects rounding and other adjustments in the source. No forecast is used.

Sources. Numbered, highest tier first; each inline citation points here.

T1Office for National Statistics, Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2025, 1 October 2026. Retrieved 9 October 2026.
T1Office for National Statistics, Provisional population estimate for the UK: mid-2025. Retrieved 9 October 2026.
T3PA Media via Express & Star, Slowest UK population growth outside pandemic since 1998, 1 October 2026. Reporting on the ONS release; used for corroboration only. Retrieved 9 October 2026.

Corrections. None. Material corrections will be logged here with date.

Figures to 9 Oct 2026. Noodle News · v1.0 · uk-population-growth-mid-2025.