New World Health Organization estimates for 2023 show the pandemic’s direct death toll falling by nine-tenths in two years, while the diseases of ageing — heart disease, stroke, dementia, diabetes — tighten their hold.
About 61 million people died in 2023, according to the WHO’s Global Health Estimates, published on 2 October and covering 2000 to 2023. The ten leading causes accounted for 33 million of those deaths, or 54%.1
Ischaemic heart disease remains the largest single cause, at about 9.5 million deaths — 16% of the total, and up 3.0 million since 2000, the largest increase of any cause. Stroke follows with 6.8 million and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with 3.6 million.1 Eight of the ten leading causes are noncommunicable diseases, which together accounted for 74% of all deaths in 2023, against 58% in 2000.2
The revised estimates make 2021 Covid-19’s worst year by a wider margin than WHO previously thought: about 9.4 million direct deaths, enough to make it the world’s leading cause of death that year. WHO’s earlier estimates had ranked it second. Together with 5.3 million in 2020, that is a two-year direct toll of about 14.7 million.1
By 2023 direct Covid-19 deaths had fallen to about 0.9 million — 90% fewer than in 2021 — and the disease had slipped to 14th. It remains in the top ten only in upper-middle-income countries, where it is tenth.1 Lower respiratory infections, which include pneumonia, are back at their 2019 level.1
Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias caused about 2.1 million deaths in 2023, two-thirds of them among women. Dementia ranked 19th in 2000; it is now fifth, and its death count has roughly tripled. In high-income countries it has climbed from seventh to third.1 Diabetes deaths have more than doubled since 2000, to about 2.0 million; in lower-middle-income countries diabetes rose from 15th to fifth.1
Some causes have fallen sharply. HIV/AIDS deaths are down 62% since 2000, and the disease has dropped from seventh to 22nd. In low-income countries, communicable diseases caused fewer than half of all deaths in 2023 — the first time WHO has recorded that.12
Life expectancy has almost recovered from the pandemic: 73.3 years in 2023 against 73.4 in 2019. Healthy life expectancy — years lived in good health — has been slower, at 62.8 years, still 0.4 years short of 2019.2 WHO also estimates that the age-standardised burden of depressive disorders rose about 20% between 2019 and 2023, and of anxiety disorders nearly 45%.2
These are modelled estimates, not a census of death certificates: many countries lack complete registration, and WHO fills the gaps with statistical models. They are revised as new data arrive — this edition moved Covid-19 from second to first place for 2021. WHO’s published summary omits counts for three of the top ten causes and gives no figure for 2022. The estimates stop at 2023; nothing here describes 2024 or 2025. Direct Covid-19 deaths exclude the wider excess mortality the pandemic caused through disrupted care.