Britain has 2.5 unemployed people for every vacancy, the most outside the pandemic since 2015

Vacancies have fallen to 702,000 while the number of unemployed people has risen, so each job opening now has more people chasing it than at any point in a decade. The ratio has stopped climbing, but it has not come back down.

Noodle News data desk · reading time ~3 min

2.5×

Unemployed people per vacancy, May to July 2026

702k

Vacancies, June to August 2026, the fewest outside the pandemic since 2014

145k

Fewer payrolled employees in August than a year earlier (early estimate)

What the data shows

A decade-high ratio that has stopped rising

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated 702,000 vacancies in the UK for June to August 2026, down 8,000 on the spring and almost unchanged since the start of the year. Outside the pandemic period, vacancies were last this low in August to October 2014.¹ Over the same stretch the unemployment rate has edged up to 4.9%, 0.2 percentage points higher than a year earlier.¹

Dividing one by the other gives the number of unemployed people competing for each opening. In April to June 2026 that was 2.49, from 1.77 million unemployed people³ and 711,000 vacancies.² Using the rolling May to July period, where both series line up, it is 2.52. The last time the quarterly figure was higher, leaving out the pandemic spike, was the second quarter of 2015, at 2.53.

Exhibit 01

Unemployed people per vacancy, quarterly, 2001 to Q2 2026

Source: Noodle News calculation from ONS unemployed level (aged 16+, seasonally adjusted) and ONS total vacancies, both quarterly, to April–June 2026. Zero-based axis. The 2020 spike reflects the pandemic collapse in vacancies.²³

Key finding. The ratio peaked at 2.54 in late 2025 and was 2.49 in the second quarter of 2026. It is a plateau at a decade high, not a fresh deterioration, and it is still less than half the 5.7 recorded after the financial crisis.

Both sides moved

Fewer jobs on offer and more people looking

Since the second quarter of 2022, when vacancies peaked at 1.29 million, they have fallen 45%. Over the same four years the number of unemployed people has risen 37%, from 1.30 million to 1.77 million. Neither side alone explains the ratio: it is the combination.²³

Exhibit 02

Unemployed people and vacancies, indexed to Q2 2022 = 100

Source: ONS unemployed level and total vacancies, quarterly, Q2 2022 to Q2 2026, each divided by its own Q2 2022 value. Zero-based axis.²³

Employer records point the same way. Early estimates put the number of payrolled employees at 30.2 million in August, 145,000 (0.5%) fewer than a year earlier. Wholesale and retail lost 76,000 payrolled jobs over the year while administrative and support services gained 72,000. The August figure is provisional, based on roughly 85% of returns.⁴ ONS says its vacancy survey suggests smaller firms may be holding back on recruitment because of higher labour costs.¹

What we don't know

The unemployment count comes from the Labour Force Survey, which ONS advises is volatile and best read over longer periods. The ratio also compares a survey of households with a survey of employers, and vacancies are a flow of openings, not a count of jobs unfilled. Next month's release, on 20 October, will update both series and revise the provisional August payroll figure.¹

Caveat. The strongest objection is that the unemployment count is a survey estimate with a margin of error, so small quarter-to-quarter moves in the ratio, including the slight easing from 2.54 to 2.49, may be noise. "Stopped rising" is as much as the data supports. The comparison with 2015 also spans a decade in which the survey, the size of the labour force and the way people look for work have all changed.

Method. Unemployed people per vacancy is the ONS Labour Force Survey count of unemployed people aged 16 and over (seasonally adjusted, series MGSC) divided by ONS total UK vacancies (series AP2Y), using the quarterly values for each series. ONS labels the two series on the same quarterly basis (for example Q2 is April to June). The rolling May to July figure uses the monthly values on the same alignment. Quarters from Q2 2020 to Q3 2021 are treated as the pandemic period when deciding what counts as the last comparable high. Both series were downloaded from ONS on 11 October 2026; derived figures were computed in code and checked against the published vacancy and unemployment-rate values in the ONS bulletin. Payroll figures are transcribed from the ONS bulletin and are provisional. No projections are used.

Sources.

T1Office for National Statistics, Labour market overview, UK: September 2026, released 15 September 2026; retrieved 11 October 2026.
T1Office for National Statistics, UK vacancies (thousands) – total, series AP2Y; retrieved 11 October 2026.
T1Office for National Statistics, Unemployed, UK, aged 16+, seasonally adjusted, series MGSC; retrieved 11 October 2026.
T1Office for National Statistics, Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: September 2026; retrieved 11 October 2026.

Corrections. None. Material corrections will be logged here with date.

Figures to 11 Oct 2026. Noodle News · v1.0 · uk-unemployed-per-vacancy.