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ANALYSIS
13 OCT 2026
Society · crime and justice

Police records and a survey disagree on who faces more religious hate crime

Police in England and Wales recorded 117 religious hate crimes per 10,000 Jewish residents and 13 per 10,000 Muslims in the year to March 2026.1 The Crime Survey, which asks people directly, estimates that more Muslims than Jewish people are victims in a typical year.1

13%
rise in police-recorded religious hate crime, to 11,419 offences in the year to March 2026
117per 10,000
police-recorded religious hate crimes against Jewish people, against 13 for Muslims
0.8%
of Muslims experience a religious hate crime in a year, against 0.4% of Jewish people, in the Crime Survey
What the data shows

Recorded religious hate crime rose 13%, and Muslims are the most numerous targets

The Home Office published its annual hate crime statistics on 8 October. Police in England and Wales recorded 146,825 hate crimes in the year to March 2026, up 7%.1 Race hate crime rose 9% and religious hate crime 13%, while disability, transgender and sexual orientation hate crimes fell.1

Within religious hate crime, 46% of offences targeted Muslims and 28% targeted Jewish people. The Home Office says it cannot read trends from police records, because forces have improved how they record crime and identify hate crime since 2014.1 Offences against Muslims rose 15% and against Jewish people 10% in the year.1

Per head

Measured against population, Jewish people are far more often recorded

The Home Office also gives rates per resident, using 2021 Census population estimates. Jewish people are a small population, so 3,162 offences gives a rate of 117 per 10,000. That is the highest of any religious group, and about nine times the rate of 13 for Muslims.1

Exhibit 01
Recorded religious hate crimes per 10,000 residents
Source: Home Office, Hate crime England and Wales, year ending March 2026, Table 5b. Rates use 2021 Census population by religion and are rounded to whole numbers. Christians are under 0.5 per 10,000 and not shown.1
The second measure

The Crime Survey points the other way

The Crime Survey for England and Wales asks a sample of residents about crimes they have experienced, whether or not they reported them. In surveys covering the three years to March 2025, it estimated that 0.8% of Muslims experienced a religious hate crime per year on average, against 0.4% of Jewish people.1 The Home Office says the different pattern may reflect how likely crimes are to be reported to police, and what each source covers. The survey leaves out public order offences, which are 53% of police-recorded hate crime.1

The units differ, so the two sources cannot be set side by side without care. The police count offences, and one victim can account for several. The survey counts people. Dividing the police rate by 10,000 gives the most the share of people victimised could be if every offence had a different victim: 1.17% for Jewish people and 0.13% for Muslims. On that basis the survey figure for Muslims is about six times what police records could account for, while the police figure for Jewish people is nearly three times the survey estimate. That is the desk's arithmetic, not a published comparison.

Exhibit 02
Police records and survey estimates, as a share of each group
Source: Police: Home Office Table 5b rate per 10,000 residents, 2025/26, divided by 10,000; an upper bound on the share victimised. Survey: Crime Survey for England and Wales, three surveys combined to March 2025, as quoted in the Home Office bulletin.1
Over time

Spikes follow events, and differ by group

Data from 33 forces show the pattern by month. Recorded offences against Muslims peaked at 618 in August 2024, after the Southport murders and the disorder that followed, and rose again to 464 in September 2025 and 421 in March 2026. Those against Jewish people peaked at 274 in October 2025, following the Heaton Park synagogue attack.1

Exhibit 03
Recorded religious hate crimes by month, 33 forces
Source: Home Office, Hate crime England and Wales, year ending March 2026, Table 3. Selected forces only, so totals are below the national figures.1
What we don't know

The bulletin does not give confidence intervals for the survey estimates in the figures quoted here, and the Jewish population is small enough that a survey sample will be thin, so the gap between 0.4% and 0.8% may be within the margin of error. The two sources also cover different periods. We do not know how many victims lie behind the police offence counts. The data do not show why police and survey patterns differ.

Caveat. Police-recorded hate crime reflects reporting and recording as well as the underlying level of crime, and the Home Office warns that it is not a reliable guide to trends or prevalence. The headline comparison of the two sources mixes offences and victims, and years and survey periods. It shows that the sources point in different directions, not which is closer to the truth. Rates per head also rest on 2021 Census populations, which will have moved.1
Method. Figures are transcribed from the Home Office bulletin and data tables for hate crime in England and Wales, year ending March 2026 (published 8 October 2026). Police figures cover all 43 forces plus British Transport Police unless marked; monthly data cover 33 forces. Percentage changes, the 9 to 1 rate ratio, the police share of population (rate divided by 10,000: 1.17% and 0.13%) and the comparison with survey shares (6.2 and 2.9 times) were computed in code and checked against the published changes of 7%, 13%, 10% and 15%. The survey figures (0.8% and 0.4%) are quoted from the Home Office bulletin, which cites Crime Survey for England and Wales results for the three years to March 2025; the desk did not retrieve the survey tables. The police-versus-survey comparison is Noodle News arithmetic and is not published by the Home Office. No projections are used. Both measures are official statistics from the same bulletin, so the two are not fully independent sources.
Sources.
  1. T1Home Office, Hate crime, England and Wales, year ending March 2026 (bulletin and data tables), published 8 October 2026; retrieved 13 October 2026.
Production. Researched, written and checked by an AI system working to the Noodle News standards; edited and published by the Noodle News editor.
Corrections. None. Material corrections will be logged here with date.
Figures to 13 Oct 2026. Noodle News · v1.0 · religious-hate-crime-police-vs-survey.