The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's price index averaged 136.0 in September, 5.8% above a year earlier and level with November 2022.1 Cereals rose 17% over the year and dairy fell 19%, and a US report on 9 October undercut one reason given for the grain rise.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) published its September food price index on 2 October. At 136.0 it was 1.5% above August, the third monthly rise in a row, and 5.8% above September 2025.1 The last time it was this high was November 2022, at the same 136.0.2
The index is a monthly average of world export prices for five food groups, weighted by export share. It was 124.1 in January and has risen in six of the eight months since. It remains 15% below its March 2022 peak.2
The headline hides a split. Over the year to September the cereals index rose 17.2% to 122.8, vegetable oils 18.3% to 198.6 and sugar 14.7% to 114.0. Meat was unchanged at 127.9, and dairy fell 19.1% to 119.1.2
The FAO attributes September's cereal rise to Black Sea logistics and dry weather in North America for wheat, and to lower US yields and less Brazilian supply for maize, which it says reached a three-year high. Palm oil rose on dry weather in South-East Asia, and sugar on expectations of tighter 2026/27 supply.1
On 9 October the US Department of Agriculture raised its 2026/27 US corn yield estimate to 181.2 bushels per acre from 178.5, lifted expected end-season stocks 18% to 1,849 million bushels, and cut its forecast farm price by 10 cents to $4.70.3 That weakens the lower-US-yields explanation the FAO gave for maize. Even so, the yield is below last season's 186.5, stocks are 12% lower and the price is 13% higher.3
The same report pointed the other way for other grains. It put US wheat production at its lowest since 1970 and Russian wheat exports at 40.0 million tonnes, the lowest in five years because of Black Sea disruption. It put US rice stocks 32% below last year.3 One reading is that the October FAO index, due in early November, will show maize easing against firm wheat and rice. This piece does not forecast it.
The October index is not out, so whether the USDA's maize revision changes the direction is unknown. September's average was fixed before the report. How far world export prices reach shop prices in the UK is not measured here, and the FAO's September meat figure is partly projected and may be revised.1