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ANALYSIS
17 OCT 2026
Science · Weather

UK rainfall looked normal in September, but England was a third short

The Met Office puts UK rainfall for September at 104% of average, while England received 65%.1 The Environment Agency says 11 areas of England are in drought and reservoirs are 54% full.3

65%
England's September rainfall as a share of the 1991 to 2020 average
54%
English reservoir storage, week to 8 October 2026
11
Areas of England in drought
What the data shows

The UK average hides a wet north and a dry south-east

September was warm across the UK, with a mean temperature of 14.6°C, joint fourth warmest since records began in 1884.1 Rainfall looks unremarkable: 94.7 mm, which is 104% of the 1991 to 2020 average.1

That average is made of very different parts. Scotland had 137% of its usual rain and Northern Ireland 135%, while England had 65%. In eastern and north-eastern England the figure was 43%.12 The summer was the hottest on record, as Noodle News reported on 11 October, and September did little to ease the dryness that followed it.

Exhibit 01
September 2026 rainfall against the 1991 to 2020 average
Source: Met Office provisional statistics for September 2026. Nations and Met Office regions are shown together; the regions overlap the nations, so bars are not additive.12
Key finding. The areas already in drought got the least rain in September, and the wettest parts of the UK were those furthest from it.
The state of the water

Reservoirs and rivers are still low

The Environment Agency reported English reservoir storage at 54% for the week to 8 October, 21% below the average for the time of year. Nineteen reservoirs or groups were under half full and eight were classed as exceptionally low.3 Yorkshire was due to move into drought on 9 October, making 11 areas in drought and three in prolonged dry weather.3

Of 55 monitored river sites, 26 were notably or exceptionally low and 11 were normal.3 The Agency says further significant rainfall is needed to return to normal conditions for many water companies, and its chief executive has said this will take months of sustained wet weather.13

Exhibit 02
River flow status at 55 sites in England
Source: Environment Agency, Dry weather and drought in England, 2 to 8 October 2026. Counts of monitored sites in each flow category.3
What we don't know

The Met Office figures are provisional and may change. The sources give one month of rainfall and one week of water-resource data, so they do not show how far the shortfall since the summer has accumulated. Nothing here says when restrictions will ease, because that depends on rainfall over the coming months.

Caveat
Caveat. The strongest objection is that a single month does not make or break a drought. England's 65% is a shortfall of about a third in one month, and reservoirs and groundwater respond to rain over many months, so September cannot be blamed for the 54%. The piece shows September as another dry month in the south-east, not as the cause of the current water position. The Met Office and Environment Agency regions also differ, so the two sets of figures are not matched area by area.
Method. Rainfall figures are the Met Office's provisional September 2026 totals as a percentage of the 1991 to 2020 average, for the UK, its nations and Met Office regions. The shortfall for England (35%) is 100 minus 65, computed in code. Reservoir, drought-area and river-flow figures are the Environment Agency's weekly summary for 2 to 8 October 2026, updated 16 October. The river counts sum to 55 and the 26 "notably or exceptionally low" is 19 plus 7. The Environment Agency's data is independent of the Met Office's.
Sources.
  1. T1Met Office, Joint-fourth warmest September on record for the UK, October 2026. Retrieved 17 October 2026.
  2. T1Met Office, September 2026 weather stats: a regional breakdown. Retrieved 17 October 2026.
  3. T1Environment Agency, Dry weather and drought in England: 2 to 8 October 2026, updated 16 October 2026. Retrieved 17 October 2026.
Production. Researched, written and checked by an AI system working to the Noodle News standards; edited and published by the Noodle News editor.
Corrections. v1.1 (20 Oct 2026): on narrow phone screens a chart label lost words without showing it had been shortened (“Southeast and England” for “Southeast and central south England”); the label is reworded to fit on a phone and the chart code that dropped the words is fixed. No figures changed. v1.2 (20 Oct 2026): on phone screens the dashed reference line in Exhibit 1 ran through the chart’s value labels; the labels now sit on top of it. No figures changed.
Figures to 17 Oct 2026. Noodle News · v1.2 · uk-september-rainfall-england-dry.