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ANALYSIS
23 OCT 2026
Society · Crime

Fraud is now nearly half of crime in England and Wales

By number of incidents, fraud made up 46% of crime in the year to June, and it rose 11% while the total held flat, the Office for National Statistics says. Police records show shoplifting and knife crime falling, but part of that is recording.

46%
Share of Crime Survey incidents that were fraud, year to June 2026
4.5m
Fraud incidents estimated by the survey, up 11% on a year earlier
626
Days for a fraud case to reach charge, against 80 for the average case
What happened

Total crime held flat, but fraud grew and now dominates it

Almost half of the crime adults in England and Wales experience is now fraud, and it is the one big category still growing. The Crime Survey for England and Wales, which asks a sample of the public about their experience, estimated 9.7 million crimes in the year to June 2026, no significant change on a year earlier. Fraud accounted for 4.5 million of them, up 11%.1

Most of that rise was bank and credit account fraud, up 13% to 2.8 million. Theft (2.7 million), violence (939,000) and criminal damage were all unchanged in a statistical sense. Computer misuse, such as hacking and malware, rose 23% to 817,000, though it is still 54% below its 2017 level.1

The police-recorded figures, published alongside, told a more encouraging story: knife-enabled offences down 6%, firearms offences down 8%, shoplifting down 2%. But the ONS says police records are not a reliable guide to trends, and the shoplifting fall has a recording explanation, set out below.1

Exhibit 01
Fraud is the largest category of crime the survey measures, ahead of all theft
Source: ONS, Crime Survey for England and Wales, year ending June 2026.1 Estimated incidents in millions. The categories sum to about 9.7 million, the headline total; each incident counts once, whatever its seriousness.
Why it happened

Fraud has moved online while other crime has fallen

The ONS singles out bank and credit account fraud as the driver but does not explain it further.1 The Home Office does, in its Fraud Strategy 2026–2029: criminals use new technology to scale up, almost half of estimated frauds are online-enabled, over two-thirds of cases have an international element, and generative AI makes attacks more convincing and harder to spot.2 Its ministers say criminals are “operating across borders with increasing impunity”.2

Fraud’s growing share is not only about fraud. The strategy puts it at 45% of survey crime in the year to September 2025, up from 31% in 2016.2 Since the survey first counted fraud in the year to March 2017, fraud is 34% higher while the total is 14% lower, so by the desk’s arithmetic everything else is down by about a third.1 The share rises because the rest of crime has shrunk.

The shoplifting fall is more contested. The ONS says some incidents that would once have been recorded as shoplifting are now classed as robbery under a clarified rule, which is why business robbery rose 67%. Retailers are wary: the Federation of Independent Retailers questioned whether the fall reflects a real drop, citing reporting difficulties, and the British Retail Consortium said “progress on tackling shop theft is still too slow”.146

Exhibit 02
Police records show falls in knife crime and shoplifting, and a jump in business robbery
Source: ONS, police-recorded crime, year ending June 2026 against the year before.1 Bars show the size of each change in percent; the label says whether offences rose or fell. The ONS attributes the business robbery rise largely to a clarified recording rule.
Why it matters

The biggest crime is the one least likely to end in charge

Victims of fraud mostly face the slowest route to justice. The Home Office says fraud cases take over 626 days to reach charge, against 80 for the average case, and that prosecutions have fallen 56% since 2015.2 Reports to the national service are a small slice of the total: the 349,000 made to Report Fraud directly compare with the survey’s 4.5 million incidents, though the two count different things.1

The harm is not only financial. The Home Office puts the cost of fraud at at least £14.4 billion in 2023–24.2 A Police Foundation study in February, based on a survey of victims in two English force areas, found 58% reported a physical health symptom linked to the fraud and 64% had changed their behaviour.3

The government’s answer is a three-year strategy with more than £250 million behind it, including £31 million for a new Online Crime Centre.2 It sets no percentage target for cutting fraud; it commits to building measures to track it. The City of London Police commissioner, Pete O’Doherty, said in July that “we cannot wait another 20 years” for the response to catch up.5

What we don't know

Why bank and credit account fraud rose 13% in particular; the ONS gives no breakdown of the other fraud types. Whether the rise in reports to the new Report Fraud service reflects more fraud or better reporting, since the system launched in December 2025. And how much of the shoplifting fall is real, which the ONS cannot separate from the recording change.

What happens next

Fraud Strategy milestones run to 2029; shop-worker protections await a start date

The next ONS crime release is on 28 January 2027.1 Under the Fraud Strategy, next steps on unauthorised fraud are due by the end of 2026, the Online Advertising Taskforce reports to ministers in early 2027, and a Fraud Victims Charter follows in 2027. A business-funded fraud unit is planned for 2028/29.2 Retail groups want a start date for the shop-worker protections in the Crime and Policing Act, passed in April, which the shopworkers’ union Usdaw says are not yet in force.4

Caveat. “Nearly half” counts incidents, not harm: a scam text that costs a few pounds counts the same as an assault. It also covers adults living in households, and the survey is a sample with margins of error. The share is therefore a measure of how often fraud happens, not of how much damage it does.
Method. Survey figures are the ONS’s estimates for England and Wales, year ending June 2026, from the Crime Survey for England and Wales; police figures are recorded offences for the same year and the year before. The 46% share is 4.5 million divided by 9.7 million, computed from the rounded published totals. “Everything else is down by about a third” is desk arithmetic from the ONS’s statements that fraud is 34% above, and total crime 14% below, the year to March 2017 (11.2 million then). Percent changes in Exhibit 2 are the ONS’s published rounded values, checked against the offence counts. The Home Office Fraud Strategy figures (45% share, 626 days to charge, £14.4 billion cost, 56% fall in prosecutions) are its own and refer to periods ending in 2025 or earlier. The Police Foundation study was read from a search extract, and the Federation of Independent Retailers comment from a trade-press extract. Report Fraud counts reports and the survey counts incidents, so the two are compared for scale only.
Sources. Numbered, highest tier first; each inline citation points here.
  1. T1Office for National Statistics, Crime in England and Wales: year ending June 2026, 22 October 2026. Retrieved 23 October 2026.
  2. T1Home Office, Fraud Strategy 2026 to 2029, March 2026 (page updated 30 April 2026). Retrieved 23 October 2026.
  3. T2The Police Foundation, Victims of fraud in England suffer significant health challenges (Invisible Harms report with the University of Portsmouth), 17 February 2026. Read as a search extract.
  4. T3Talking Retail, Retail industry welcomes shoplifting decrease with caution, 22 October 2026. Retrieved 23 October 2026.
  5. T3Police Professional, Response to fraud must transform faster, warns City of London Police, 27 July 2026. Retrieved 23 October 2026.
  6. T3Talking Retail, Fed questions whether falling shop theft figures tell the full story, 22 October 2026. Read as a search extract.
Production. Researched, written and checked by an AI system working to the Noodle News standards; edited and published by the Noodle News editor.
Corrections. None. Material corrections will be logged here with date.
Figures to 23 Oct 2026. Noodle News · v1.0 · fraud-nearly-half-of-crime-england-wales.