Three stories worth knowing today, in plain English: what happened, why it matters and what comes next.
Economists polled by Reuters expect Bank Rate to rise to 4% from 3.75% on 5 November. They expect a 7–2 vote for the rise. The Bank voted 6–3 to hold in September.
Why it matters: Inflation was 3.5% in the year to September, above the Bank's forecast, because energy costs are high. A rise makes borrowing dearer for mortgage holders and businesses.
What next: The decision and new forecasts come at noon on Thursday 5 November. Bailey holds a press conference at 12:30.
Sources: Reuters poll preview, 1 November
The OBR says the Chancellor's room against his fiscal rules is about £15bn in 2029-30, down from £23.6bn in March. Healey chose to let the Iran war's costs absorb some of it. Gilt yields barely moved.
Why it matters: A thin buffer leaves the government little cover if growth or borrowing costs turn worse. Capital Economics expects more tax and spending decisions in 2027.
What next: The Spending Review comes next year, with defence plans deferred to it. The Bank of England decides on rates on Thursday.
Sources: Investment Week, 28 October · Brit Brief on the market reaction · City AM on the OBR forecast
A senior Iranian security official said there would be no nuclear talks or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz until the US accepts Iran's demands. Iran's Revolutionary Guard also claimed four tankers hit mines on Friday. That claim is unverified.
Why it matters: The strait carries much of the world's oil, so the standoff keeps energy prices high. That feeds UK inflation and the case for higher interest rates.
What next: Qatar and Pakistan are mediating. Reports say Washington has warned Gulf allies of possible strikes, and Rubio says Trump has not decided.
Sources: Times of Israel liveblog, 31 October · Gulf News live updates, 1 November