Five stories worth knowing today, in plain English: what happened, why it matters and what comes next.
New today: This is decision day, and new lender figures show what a rise would cost.
Most analysts expect Bank Rate to go from 3.75% to 4%. That would be the first rise since August 2023. Inflation reached 3.5% in September, mainly because of petrol and diesel costs linked to the Iran war.
Why it matters: UK Finance says it would add about £31 a month to a typical tracker mortgage, and about 510,000 borrowers have one. Others feel it when a fixed deal ends.
What next: The Bank announces its decision at 12:00 today, Thursday 5 November.
Sources: BBC, via AOL · HomeOwners Alliance
New today: Oil fell further after the midterm results, and Trump says no new strikes are planned for now.
Brent crude fell more than 8% on Wednesday, its lowest since early September. Trump told the Financial Times the US has no immediate plans to renew strikes, and JD Vance blamed the war for Republican midterm losses. Iran says the US reply to its Hormuz plan falls short.
Why it matters: Andy Burnham says living costs will not fall until the Middle East conflict is resolved. Cheaper oil would help, but no deal has been confirmed.
What next: Qatar is passing proposals between the two sides, and says both remain committed to talks. No date for a deal has been given.
Sources: OilPrice.com · Al Jazeera · A News, Burnham remarks
Louise Haigh stood in for Andy Burnham at Prime Minister's Questions and did not rule out tax rises to meet welfare costs. Spending is forecast to rise by £19bn this year to £353bn. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts £431bn by 2031-32.
Why it matters: The growth comes largely from health-related and pensioner benefits. Any change reaches pensioners, people with health conditions and the taxpayers who fund them.
What next: Haigh said the government is committed to legislate, without giving details. Burnham's 10-year plan is due at the end of this year.
Sources: LBC · London Loves Business
King Charles did not apologise when he opened the Commonwealth summit in Antigua on Tuesday. Andy Burnham is open to a formal apology for Britain's role in slavery. He has ruled out reparations, and offered £40m over three years from existing budgets for Caribbean infrastructure.
Why it matters: An apology would be unprecedented for a British Prime Minister. Antigua's leader Gaston Browne wants compensation, but Burnham says taxpayers should not be held liable.
What next: The Caribbean bloc Caricom is reported to be ready for talks. The BBC reports an apology is likely during the UK's G20 presidency next year.
Sources: Arab News · LBC, on the summit · LBC, on Browne
Ukrainian authorities raised the toll to 40 after Monday's strike on Komyshuvakha, in the Zaporizhzhia region. President Zelenskyy said more than 30 people may still be under the rubble. The UN human rights mission said the bombing likely violated international law.
Why it matters: Zelenskyy says the strike shows Russia does not want de-escalation. The UK is among those meeting US negotiators in Brussels this week on security guarantees for Ukraine.
What next: US-mediated working-level talks between Ukraine and Russia are due in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November.
Sources: Al Jazeera, via Yahoo · Interfax-Ukraine