The Home Office granted 383,455 study visas in the year to June 2026, 41% below the 2023 peak; students' own visas fell 12%. English universities, reliant on overseas fees for nearly a quarter of income, face a levy from 2028.
Fewer international students are getting visas to study in Britain, and with family numbers now flat, this year's fall is in the students themselves, whose fees universities rely on. The Home Office granted 365,868 study visas to students in the year to June, 12% fewer than a year earlier.1
Counting dependants, 383,455 visas were granted, 41% below the peak.1 About half of that fall was family members, cut by a rule that took effect in January 2024. Dependant numbers have barely moved since 2025, so almost all of this year's fall is students.12
That matters because universities in England draw nearly a quarter of their income from overseas students' fees, and their plans assume more of those students, not fewer.7 The government brought in the family rule to cut net migration. The Migration Observatory, at Oxford, says restrictions of that kind “likely explain at least part of the recent decline” (briefing, 30 June 2026), and university finance directors also blame tougher visa compliance rules and the planned levy on international students.107
The fall has not stopped. Main-applicant applications in the year to September were 19% lower than a year before, the Home Office reported on 8 October.3 September, one of the busiest months for applications, was the weakest for that month in five years, Times Higher Education reports.15
The peak was unusual. The Home Office puts the 2019 total at nearly 300,000, so this year is still more than a quarter higher than before the pandemic.1 Noodle News reported the fall in care worker visas from the same release, and the wider fall in net migration in June.
The government's case for the dependants rule was scale. Visas for student dependants had risen more than tenfold since 2019, to almost 153,000 a year, and ministers expected the change to mean about 140,000 fewer arrivals.4 James Cleverly, then Home Secretary, said it would end “the unreasonable practice of overseas students bringing their family members to the UK” (Home Office, 2 January 2024). Research students and some scholarship holders were exempt.4
One reading of the figures is that the rule deterred students as well as families. Nigerians were more likely than other nationalities to bring dependants, the Migration Observatory notes, and the collapse of the naira after 2023 made fees abroad harder to afford.10 Nigerian student visas are down 56% since 2023, the steepest fall among the three largest nationalities.12 Indian numbers, which the Observatory says the two-year Graduate route had helped to swell, are down 42%.10
The newest pressure is compliance. Since 1 June 2026, universities that sponsor students must keep refusals below 5% of their visa applicants, down from 10%, or risk a red rating under a new traffic-light system.13 Finance directors told the Office for Students that the thresholds could threaten some providers' survival.7 ICEF Monitor, a trade publication, reports that some universities have paused recruitment in markets with high refusal rates; Pakistani student visas fell 47% this year.161
Policy drives it. Sally Wheeler, vice-chancellor of Birkbeck, blames government settings and living costs; Jenny Phillimore of Birmingham says counting students in net migration invites cuts, and warns: “Some may well go under as a result” (Times Higher Education, 14 September 2026).14
Demand drives it. Steve Smith, the government's international education champion, points to falling numbers in the US, Canada and Australia, which also tightened visas, and to students choosing to stay closer to home. He does not expect closures.14
Non-UK students paid £10.9bn of the £48.1bn that higher education providers in England earned in 2024-25.7 Their new international entrants fell 7.7% that year, 9% short of what the providers had forecast. Yet they still plan for 22.5% more international students by 2028-29, which the regulator called “overly optimistic” in its May report.7
The money is already short. About 36% of English providers ran a deficit in 2024-25, and their own forecasts put it at 43% in 2025-26.7 In a Universities UK survey this spring, 44% of responding universities had closed courses in the past three years and 13% had shut a campus; two-thirds named changes in international recruitment as a drag on their finances.12 Vivienne Stern, its chief executive, said universities were “grasping the nettle” (Universities UK, 25 May 2026).12
The effect reaches beyond campuses. A study for the Higher Education Policy Institute by London Economics puts the net benefit of the 2024-25 intake at £40.4bn over their studies, and about £2.9bn lower than if 2022-23 numbers had held.11 Maike Halterbeck of London Economics says the gain is “spread widely across the country” (HEPI, 9 July 2026), averaging about £62m per parliamentary constituency.11 Home students may feel it too: overseas fees subsidise teaching and research for everyone, the Migration Observatory says.10
How much of this year's fall is policy and how much is weaker demand worldwide is not settled; the Home Office does not apportion it, and the sources above disagree. Visa grants also run ahead of enrolments, so the effect on autumn 2026 intakes will not be clear until universities report their numbers.
The Budget on 28 October is the next test.8 The Department for Education intends to put the international student levy into the autumn Finance Bill: £925 a year for each international student from 1 August 2028, with each provider's first 220 students exempt. The government says the aim is that “proceeds from international students directly benefit domestic students” (DfE, 13 July 2026), through maintenance grants.6 Its own analysis expected about 14,000 fewer enrolments in the first year, The PIE News reported.18 Universities UK's Vivienne Stern called it “effectively putting a tariff on a UK export” (ICEF Monitor, 15 July 2026).17
From 1 January 2027, new Graduate visas for bachelor's and master's graduates will last 18 months instead of two years; the Home Office's impact assessment expects demand for study visas to fall by 3.5% in its central case.5 The next figures arrive on 12 November, with October's applications, and on 26 November, when the quarterly release for the year to September will show the visas granted for the main autumn intake.9